xov xwm

[Lead]: Cov khoom siv hauv tsev tsim khoom lag luam ntau dua li qub, cov khoom lag luam xav tias yuav nce ntxiv, cov khoom lag luam siab tseem nyob ntawd, thiab nrog cov chaw tsim khoom qis qis pib ib qho tom qab, qhov kev thov sab txhawb nqa tau txhim kho, nws xav tias lub lim tiam tom ntej polyethylene ua lag luam tus nqi poob siab hloov.

I. Kev tsim cov khoom siv hauv tsev yuav tsum nce ntxiv

Tag nrho cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm polyethylene ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev hauv lub voj voog no yog 524,000 tons, txo qis me ntsis piv nrog lub voj voog dhau los, feem ntau yog vim qhov tshiab Qilu Petrochemical thiab Dushanzi petrochemical cog tu.Hauv lub voj voog tom ntej, Plhaub thiab Qilu Petrochemical overhaul li npaj pib ua haujlwm, thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv ib txwm tsim.Cov cuab yeej tshiab tau npaj kho dua tshiab tsuas yog Dushanzi Petrochemical's 300,000 tons / xyoo tshiab tag nrho-density kab 1 ntaus ntawv.Kev hloov kho qhov poob hauv lub voj voog tom ntej yog kwv yees li 27,700 tons, uas yog 24.73% tsawg dua lub voj voog no, thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev yuav tsum nce ntxiv.

Ii.Kev ntshuam ntawm qee qhov kev saib xyuas khoom siv txawv teb chaws xav tias yuav nce ntxiv

Nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, cov khoom ntim ntawm polyethylene hauv Suav teb yog 1,092,200 tons, poob 13.80% ntawm lub hli dhau los.Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog vim li cas tus nqi pauv ntawm US duas tawm tsam RMB thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis yog siab, qhov chaw ntshuam arbitrage tau nqaim, thiab kev txaus siab ntawm cov tub lag luam tsis muaj zog, yog li cov khoom xa tuaj tuaj txog ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis poob.Tom qab ntawd, txawm hais tias tus nqi pauv ntawm US duas tawm tsam RMB poob qis, vim yog kev saib xyuas ntawm qee cov khoom siv nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia thiab Middle East, tag nrho cov khoom siv nruj, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom tuaj txawv teb chaws tau nce, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov khoom lag luam poob qis, thiab cov khoom lag luam. nce yuav tsum muaj tsawg.

Thib peb, cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam qis tau pib nce qhov kev xav tau xav tau

Lub lim tiam no lub peev xwm siv tus nqi ntawm kev lag luam downstream ntawm polyethylene yog +0.51% piv rau lub lim tiam dhau los.Ntawm lawv, qhov peev xwm siv tau ntawm cov yeeb nkab thiab ntim zaj duab xis tau nce ntau dua piv rau lub lim tiam dhau los, thiab kev rov pib dua ntawm lwm yam yog txwv.Feem ntau cov lag luam yuav rov pib ua haujlwm tom qab hnub 15 ntawm thawj lub hlis, thiab lub sijhawm txiav txim ntev yuav raug ncua.Yog li ntawd, kev siv tus nqi ntawm polyethylene downstream peev yuav cia siab tias yuav nce ntxiv rau lub lim tiam tom ntej, thiab kev txhawb nqa ntawm kev thov kawg yuav raug txhim kho.

Ntawm cov khoom lag luam, qhov nce ntawm cov khoom siv tuaj txawv teb chaws yog txwv, thaum cov khoom siv hauv tsev xav tias yuav nce ntxiv, yog li lub siab ntawm cov khoom siv tseem nyob.Raws li qhov xav tau, cov chaw tsim khoom hauv qab tau rov pib tsim khoom ib zaug, thiab qhov kev thov yuav tsum nce ntxiv.Tsis tas li ntawd, tom qab kev tswj hwm ntawm cov xwm txheej kev noj qab haus huv rau pej xeem raug tshem tawm, kev ua lag luam tus cwj pwm tau txhim kho thiab kev xav tau ntawm kev txhawb nqa tau ntxiv dag zog.Feem ntau, nws xav tias polyethylene kev ua lag luam tus nqi hloov feem ntau shocks.