Kev lag luam ethylene hauv Suav teb tau maj mam nkag mus rau lub sijhawm paub tab, cov khoom siv qis qis feem ntau yog PE, ethylene oxide (EO), EG, SM, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) thiab lwm yam khoom.Hauv 2020, tsib pawg ntawm cov khoom lag luam suav txog li 97.2% ntawm tag nrho cov ethylene noj.Ntawm lawv, cov khoom siv loj tshaj plaws yog PE, suav txog 63.5 feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv.Qhov no tau ua raws li EO thiab EG, uas suav txog 10.3% thiab 9.0% raws li (saib daim duab 2).
1 |PE txoj kev loj hlob zoo: kev sib tw homogeneity yog khaus, qhov sib txawv, kev loj hlob siab
PE cov khoom tseem ceeb yog linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), low density polyethylene (LDPE), high density polyethylene (HDPE) peb pawg.PE muaj qhov zoo ntawm tus nqi qis thiab cov khoom siv tshuaj zoo, thiab yog siv dav hauv kev ua liaj ua teb, kev lag luam thiab lub neej txhua hnub.Los ntawm 2016 txog 2021, lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev PE txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, nrog kev loj hlob nruab nrab ntawm 12%, nrog rau tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm 27.73 lab tons / xyoo hauv 2021.
Tam sim no, PE cov khoom lag luam hauv Suav teb feem ntau tso siab rau cov khoom siv qis kawg, thiab cov khoom lag luam PE high-end cia siab rau kev xa khoom, thiab muaj cov teeb meem pom tseeb, xws li cov khoom lag luam qis kawg thiab tsis muaj cov khoom lag luam siab.Nyob rau hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no, nrog rau kev nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev PE, kev sib tw homogeneous yuav hnyav dua, thiab kev hloov pauv hauv tsev ntawm cov khoom siv high-end yog loj.Noj metallocene polyethylene (mPE) cov khoom ua piv txwv, tam sim no kev lag luam hauv tsev xav tau yog kwv yees li 1 lab tons / xyoo, thiab Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam hauv 2020 tsuas yog kwv yees li 110,000 tons.Qhov sib txawv loj loj txhawb nqa ntau cov khoom lag luam mPE tuaj yeem nkag mus hauv Suav lag luam.Yog li ntawd, nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb heev rau PE los txhim kho nyob rau hauv cov kev taw qhia ntawm high-end thiab sib txawv.
2 |EO txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev sib koom ua ke thiab EO / EG hloov pauv hloov tau
EO feem ntau yog siv rau hauv kev tsim khoom ntawm EG, thiab feem ntau cov tuam txhab txais EO / EG co-tsim khoom.Tsis tas li ntawd, EO kuj tuaj yeem siv rau hauv dej txo tus neeg sawv cev, polyether, tshuaj tua kab mob thiab ua kom tsis muaj menyuam.
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, nrog rau kev sib cog lus ntawm EG kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig, feem ntau EO / EG co-production units pib hloov mus rau EO ntau lawm, thiab coj mus rau hauv tus account qhov hloov pauv ntawm ob qho tib si, txhawm rau txhim kho cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam.EO muaj peev xwm ntau lawm tau nce ntau, tab sis kev txhim kho ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv qab tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm tsis sib xws, thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev sib luag thiab homogeneity yog qhov pom tseeb.Cov khoom tseem ceeb, xws li polycarboxylic acid dej txo tus neeg sawv cev monomer, surfactant thiab ethanolamine, tau ntsib qhov teeb meem ntawm overcapacity, kev lag luam kev sib tw yog hnyav, muaj peev xwm siv tus nqi txo.Rau qhov no, los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov qauv kev txhim kho sab saud thiab qis qis, yuav ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo los txhim kho cov kev sib tw tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam, xws li ethylene, EO, EG, tsim rau polyether monomer (xws li polyethylene glycol monomethyl ether, allyl polyoxyethylene ether, methyl. allyl polyoxyethylene ether), polyoxyethylene nonionic surfactants (xws li fatty cawv polyoxyethylene ether) thiab ua tiav kev lag luam saw, Txuas ntxiv mus nthuav downstream, nplua nuj cov khoom lag luam.
3 |EG: ncua kev lag luam saw, khoom hla kev tsim khoom
EG yog daim ntawv thov thib ob loj tshaj plaws ntawm ethylene.Los ntawm 2016 mus rau 2021, nrog rau zus tau tej cov loj thee-tshuaj tej yaam num thiab integrated refining thiab tshuaj tej yaam num, EG muaj peev xwm ntau lawm xyoo los ntawm lub xyoo, nrog rau tag nrho cov muaj peev xwm ntawm 21.452 lab tons / xyoo nyob rau hauv 2021.
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, EG muaj peev xwm tau nce ntxiv, tab sis qhov kev thov qis qis tau qeeb, kev muaj peev xwm dhau los yuav pom tseeb dua.Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev noj qab haus huv, peb cov EG feem ntau yog siv los tsim cov polyester, suav nrog EG cov qauv siv ntau dua 90%, kev noj zaub mov yog ib leeg, muaj cov khoom lag luam luv luv, cov qauv khoom zoo sib xws, kev sib tw nqi qis. teeb meem loj.
Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, peb yuav tsum tau nce daim ntawv thov thiab kev loj hlob ntawm unsaturated polyester resin, lubricating roj, plasticizer, non-ionic surfactant, txheej, number case thiab lwm yam lag luam los ntawm lub extension ntawm industrial saw, maj mam hloov qhov teeb meem ntawm ib tug siv, tsim ib tug. industrial saw los ntawm kev tsim khoom mus rau daim ntawv thov, txhim kho tus nqi ntxiv ntawm cov khoom, txhawm rau txo qis kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam.
4 |SM tiam sis: ib qho tseem ceeb expansion peev, stability ntawm downstream kev lag luam
Lub downstream ntawm SM yog tsuas yog siv rau zus tau tej cov styrene polymers thiab ntau yam ionic polymers, xws li combustible polystyrene (EPS), polystyrene (PS), acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene terpolymer (ABS), unsaturated polyester resin (UPR), styrene roj hmab (SBR), styrene copolymer (SBC) thiab lwm yam khoom.Ntawm lawv, EPS, PS thiab ABS account rau ntau tshaj 70% ntawm SM noj nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj, thiab lawv cov khoom feem ntau yog siv nyob rau hauv cov khoom siv hauv tsev, khoom siv hluav taws xob, tsheb, vaj tse thiab lwm yam lag luam.
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, nrog kev tsim cov dej loj hauv qab txhawb nqa SM units rau refining thiab tshuaj sib xyaw ua ke hauv Suav teb thiab kev nce siab ntawm propylene oxide / styrene monomer (PO / SM) cov phiaj xwm kev tsim khoom, SM muaj peev xwm ntau lawm tau qhia txog kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua. .Los ntawm 2020 txog 2022, SM lub peev xwm ntau lawm tau pom kev loj hlob sai, thiab nws xav tias thaum kawg ntawm 2022, lub peev xwm ntau lawm yuav tshaj 20 lab tons / xyoo.Nrog rau kev tso tawm txuas ntxiv ntawm lub peev xwm, tus qauv ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab kev thov tau pom muaj kev hloov pauv, nrog rau kev xa khoom poob qis thiab ib qho me me ntawm cov khoom xa tawm.Raws li lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm SM yog ntau dua li ntawm cov ntshiab benzene hauv 2021, cov khoom siv raw cov khoom ntshiab benzene yog nyob rau hauv qhov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom tsis txaus, uas ntxiv compresses cov nyiaj tau los ntawm SM.Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev noj, ntawm peb qhov kev lag luam downstream, tsuas yog ABS kev lag luam tswj kev ua haujlwm siab, uas ua rau nws nyuaj rau zom cov khoom nce ntxiv los ntawm SM lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab.Raws li qhov tshwm sim, SM cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau thiab kev txhawb nqa tus nqi, thiab qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev ua lag luam qhia tau hais tias muaj qhov sib txawv-oscillating.Hauv kev ua lag luam kawg, "kev lag luam hauv tsev" tshwm sim los ntawm COVID-19 kev sib kis tau txhawb nqa kev muag khoom ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev me.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov xwm txheej kis mob hnyav tseem nyob txawv teb chaws, thiab kev xa tawm cov khoom tiv thaiv kab mob sib kis thiab qee cov khoom siv hauv tsev tau dhau qhov kev cia siab, uas tau ua rau kev xav tau kev loj hlob ntawm SM kev lag luam saw thiab txhim kho cov txiaj ntsig zoo.
5 |PVC txoj kev loj hlob zoo: zoo thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig mus sib koom tes
PVC yog thawj universal hluavtaws cob khoom nyob rau hauv peb lub teb chaws.Nrog nws cov kev ua tau zoo thiab tus nqi sib piv, nws tau siv dav hauv cov khoom lag luam thiab cov khoom siv hauv lub neej txhua hnub, nrog kev hnav zoo heev, nplaim taws retardant, tshuaj tiv thaiv corrosion thiab hluav taws xob rwb thaiv tsev yam ntxwv.PVC ntau lawm muaj ob hom txheej txheem kev npaj, ib qho yog calcium carbide txoj kev, cov khoom siv tseem ceeb yog calcium carbide, thee thiab raw ntsev.Hauv Suav teb, txwv los ntawm cov peev txheej nyiaj txiag ntawm cov nplua nuj thee, ntshiv roj thiab roj me me, txoj kev calcium carbide yog txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb.Nyob rau hauv cov txheej txheem tsim khoom, ntau cov dej tshiab tau siv, thiab muaj kev tsis sib haum xws li kev siv hluav taws xob ntau thiab muaj kuab paug.Thib ob, txheej txheem ethylene, cov khoom siv tseem ceeb yog roj av.Kev ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb yog cov txheej txheem ethylene, nrog rau cov khoom lag luam zoo, kev siv thev naus laus zis, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, thiab lwm yam, muaj peev xwm hloov cov txheej txheem calcium carbide yav tom ntej.
Tuam Tshoj yog lub ntiaj teb cov neeg tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm PVC, tab sis kuj yog cov neeg siv khoom loj, kev lag luam hauv tsev yog nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm overcapacity.Nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no tam sim no kev siv cov yas es tsis txhob hlau, yas es tsis txhob ntawm ntoo lub tswv yim, txo cov kev siv ntawm cov ntxhia pob zeb thiab ntoo nyob rau hauv lub keeb kwm yav dhau, PVC resin tau tiav kev loj hlob, downstream daim ntawv thov kev lag luam txuas ntxiv mus, nyob rau hauv cov yas profiles, kev kho mob ntshav. cov raj, cov hnab ntim ntshav, tsheb, cov ntaub ntawv foaming thiab lwm yam khoom lag luam tau siv dav.Nrog rau kev nrawm ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam hauv nroog thiab kev txhim kho ntawm cov neeg nyob hauv kev ua neej nyob, cov kev cia siab thiab kev xav tau ntawm lub zej zog rau kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig tau nce tas li.Kev lag luam hauv qab ntawm PVC tau nkag mus rau theem ntawm kev sib tw hnyav ntawm kev ua tau zoo thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, thiab daim ntawv thov kev lag luam tau nthuav dav mus tas li thiab cov qauv ntawm ntau haiv neeg txoj kev loj hlob yog pom tseeb.
6 |lwm yam khoom tsim kho |
Lwm yam ethylene downstream khoom, xws li ethylene - vinyl acetate, polyvinyl cawv, vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA), ethylene - vinyl cawv copolymer thiab ethylene - acrylic acid copolymer, epdm, thiab lwm yam, tus account tam sim no rau cov me me, daim ntawv thov prospect. ntawm kuj ruaj khov, daim ntawv thov tam sim no sharply nthuav lub zeem muag tsis pom, kuj tsis pom yog hloov los ntawm ib tug loj tus naj npawb ntawm hem.Cov khoom siv hauv tsev high-end polyolefin feem ntau txwv los ntawm kev cuam tshuam txawv teb chaws, xws li ethylene-α-olefin (1-butene, 1-hexene, 1-octene, thiab lwm yam) copolymer, kev siv tshuab hauv tsev tsis paub tab, muaj qhov chaw loj. rau kev txhim kho.Feem ntau cov khoom qis qis ntawm ethylene yog nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog kev coj noj coj ua ntawm kev sib raug zoo thiab kev lag luam thiab kev xav tau ntawm kev hloov kho dua tshiab.Piv txwv li, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau ntawm carbon ncov thiab carbon neutrality, kev lag luam photovoltaic nkag mus rau hauv txoj kev loj hlob sai, qhov kev thov rau EVA photovoltaic cov ntaub ntawv yuav nce siab, thiab kev lag luam tus nqi ntawm ethylene acetate tseem yuav khiav mus rau theem siab. .
Nws cia siab tias los ntawm 2025, Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm ntawm ethylene yuav ntau tshaj 70 lab tons / xyoo, uas yuav ua tau raws li qhov xav tau hauv tsev, thiab tej zaum yuav muaj ntau ntxiv.Raws li kev cuam tshuam ntawm lub teb chaws "ob chav tswj" txoj cai ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob, kev lag luam thee chemical thiab petrochemical kev lag luam yuav ntsib qhov kev sim hnyav thaum lub sijhawm 14th Tsib-Year Plan, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntseeg loj rau txoj haujlwm ethylene siv cov khoom siv fossil raw. cov ntaub ntawv.Nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm carbon peaking thiab carbon neutrality, cov tuam txhab tau qhia kom tag nrho xav txog qhov txo thiab hloov cov pa roj carbon emissions thaum npaj tej yaam num, hloov fossil zog nrog lub zog tauj dua tshiab thiab hluav taws xob huv si, nquag tshem tawm rov qab muaj peev xwm thiab txo cov peev txheej, thiab txhawb nqa. industrial transformation thiab upgrading.
Ethylene thiab hydrogen tsim los ntawm qhov project ntawm ethane cracking rau ethylene yog ib qho tseem ceeb raw cov ntaub ntawv uas yuav tsum tau los ntawm lub domestic kev ua lag luam, nrog rau kev loj hlob prospects thiab muaj zog profitability.Muaj kev vam khom rau kev xa khoom, cov peev txheej hauv tsev ethane, txawm li cas los xij, muaj ib qho khoom siv raw, cov khoom siv sib txuas ua haujlwm siab, kev thauj mus los hauv hiav txwv nyuaj, xws li "lawv" kev pheej hmoo, hais rau National Development thiab Reform Commission thiab lwm lub tuam txhab kev lag luam txhawm rau ntxiv dag zog rau kev taw qhia. , lub tuam txhab ua ke nrog lawv tus kheej qhov teeb meem tiag tiag, ua tiav qhov kev ua tau zoo, tsis txhob "teeb, dispersed nyob rau hauv ib tug hubbub" speculation.
Ethylene downstream tshwj xeeb tshaj yog high-end derivatives, yuav coj mus rau hauv ib qho chaw lag luam loj.Xws li mPE, ethylene-α-olefin copolymer, ultra-high molecular hnyav polyethylene, siab carbon cawv, cyclic olefin polymer thiab lwm yam khoom yuav yog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev ua lag luam.Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, tej yaam num tshiab xws li refining thiab chemical integration, CTO/MTO, thiab ethane cracking yuav muab txaus ethylene raw cov ntaub ntawv kom ceev txoj kev loj hlob ntawm ethylene downstream kev lag luam mus rau cov kev taw qhia ntawm "kev sib txawv, high-end thiab haumxeeb".
Post lub sij hawm: Aug-03-2022